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【 In-depth 】 Red Ocean Crisis Superimposed with AI Arms race: The global military electronics supply chain is facing reconstruction

2024-07-10

1、With the continuous impact of international hotspots, military electronics have come to the forefront.

Since 2024, multiple geopolitical and technological transformation factors have intertwined, completely reshaping the landscape of the military electronics industry:

(1) Red Sea Crisis: Disruption of shipping exposes the vulnerability of the supply chain

The attack by the Houthi forces on merchant ships has led to a 300% surge in freight rates on the Asia-Europe route, and the delivery of chips from original factories such as TI/ADI to the Asia-Pacific region has been delayed by 4 to 6 weeks.

Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system intercepts over 200 rockets daily, and the inventory of its core component (ADI's ADAR1000 phased array radar chip) is in short supply.

(2) The weaponization of AI has given rise to the demand for new types of chips

The emergence of AI target recognition unmanned aerial vehicles (equipped with NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin) on the battlefield in Ukraine has driven a sharp increase in the demand for military edge computing chips.

The US DARPA has launched the "Electronic Revival Program", demanding a tenfold increase in the anti-interference performance of military AI chips by 2026.

(3) The competition among major powers escalates technological blockade

The latest US chip ban has placed Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. and Cambricon on the Entity list, blocking their path to military cooperation.

The European Union has passed the "European Chips Act", allocating 43 billion euros to develop independent military semiconductors.

2、The "Dangers" and "Opportunities" of the Military IC Supply Chain

(Data comparison: Key Indicators of 2023 vs. 2024)  

Indicator

2023

2024

Trend

Delivery date of TI military MCU

 42 weeks

65 weeks

↑55%  

The volume of counterfeit chips seized

120 million pieces

 230 million pieces

↑92%  

China's dependence on military IC imports

 78%  

68%   

↓10%  

Structural contradictions have become prominent:

- Uncontrolled logistics costs: The Red Sea bypassing the Cape of Good Hope has increased the landed price of TI chips by 15%.

The technological gap is widening: 3nm military AI chips in Europe and the United States have been taped out, while China is still stuck at 14nm.

- Split testing standards: The new NATO regulation requires military ics to pass EMP simulation tests, which is not recognized by China's GJB548B standard.

3、The way to break through for global enterprises

▶ European and American giants: Building a "Military Semiconductor Alliance"

Intel has received a $19 billion order from the Pentagon to build a new dedicated military wafer fab in Arizona.

ADI has collaborated with Raytheon to develop a "chip passport" system, enabling full-process traceability from wafers to warheads.

▶ China-Russia Breakthrough: Unconventional Measures to Address Weaknesses

Russia obtained Xilinx 7 series FPgas through Turkey for use in the "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile.

China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC) and SMIC have jointly trial-produced the military version of the Ascend 910B, with a yield rate exceeding 80%.

Three major strategies for Yongzao Hong Kong's technology

(1) Dynamic Inventory Network

Bonded warehouses have been set up in Singapore and Dubai to avoid shipping route risks, and the delivery time of TI/ADI chips has been shortened to 72 hours.

In response to the militarization trend of AI, stock up on NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin industrial-grade modules (supporting a wide temperature range of -40℃ to 85℃).

(2) Military-Civilian Integration solutions

- Introduce the "1+1 alternative solution" : Pair one imported chip (such as TI's DSP) with one domestic chip (such as Huawei hisilicon Hi3559), and reduce the risk of supply disruption through compatible design;

Jointly build an EMP testing center with the Shenzhen Military Laboratory to meet the dual certification requirements of NATO and national standards.

(3) Actions to Purify the Grey Market

- Free chip DNA testing service is provided (based on THz time-domain spectroscopy technology), with an accuracy rate of 99.7%.

A "List of untrustworthy suppliers" has been established, and 23 traders involved in counterfeit TI chips have been blocked.

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